Evenly Matched
David Benavidez and Caleb Plant are top-ranked super middleweights with almost identical experience levels and records at the professional level. Both are former world champions at the weight class and this fight is one of those that would be a world title unification match if all the belts weren’t already held by Canelo Alvarez. On paper, this is as evenly matched as you can get. However, as the saying goes, styles make fights. So let's explore how we believe the styles of each fighter matches up against each other.
Polar opposites
Just because Benavidez and Plant are exceptionally similar in experience and skill level doesn’t mean they fight in a similar fashion. As a matter of fact, we believe these two couldn’t be more different in fighting style. The reason we want to discuss this point is because this leads to them having opposite strengths and weaknesses. In other words, we believe Plant’s greatest strength is Benavidez’s greatest weakness and Benavidez’s greatest strength is Plant’s greatest weakness. This is pivotal to how we see the fight ending.
It All Starts With The Jab
Let’s start with what we believe is Caleb Plant’s greatest strength. His jab. Plant has shown to have an educated jab which he uses to control the distance and score points. The success he gets from his jab ultimately comes from his ability to mix up his jab with feints to keep his opponents guessing, and lead hand probes to keep them at distance as well as draw out punches he can counter. Plant also variates the target of his jab from head to body very well to keep himself unpredictable and lower the chance of him getting countered. Combine this with disciplined footwork and you have a recipe for an excellent jab. Plant is rarely ever seen over-extending with his jab, or shooting it while off balance. He almost always shoots the jab with his feet set and in a position where he can reach his opponent. This can even be seen in the early rounds in his fight with Canelo Alvarez where he saw a lot of success with his jab.
In contrast, we believe the jab is David Benavidez’s greatest weakness, both in terms of being susceptible to it and his own use of it. Unlike Plant, Benavidez isn’t the type of fighter who will keep you at distance with the jab and pick you apart from the outside. Benavidez looks to put the pressure on, come forward, and break his opponents down with brutal combination punching. Benavidez’s use of the jab is mostly to cut the distance. Unfortunately for him, he has not shown a very educated use of this jab in his recent fights. When coming forward, Benavidez is susceptible to reaching with his jab. He likes to start his combinations with it as well, but constantly reaching with your punches is not a good thing as it leaves you open to being countered. Nobody has made Benavidez pay for this bad habit yet, but if I’m in Plant’s corner, I’m looking at exploiting this.
On top of this, we believe Benavidez is highly susceptible to a good jab user as well, and this is due to his style and footwork. Benavidez is a pressure fighter first and foremost. By default, a pure boxer like Plant will try to keep him at bay with the jab. Naturally, the jab is already the best weapon against a pressure fighter because it does the one thing pressure fighters don’t want. Control distance. However, the issues don’t stop there. Benavidez has shown to have the sloppier footwork of the two. Often breaking stance when coming forward, leaving his stance too narrow to punch or defend himself. This is because he will often walk forward instead of stepping with his lead foot first and following with his rear foot to keep his fighting stance. This leads to him off balance and sometimes even punching from these off balance positions. He was already susceptible to the jab just by stylistically being a pressure fighter, but if he comes forward while also being off balance then he’ll be open for jabs on a silver platter.
Pressure Bursts Pipes
While pressure may leave Benavidez susceptible to jabs, that pressure is the key to what we believe is his greatest strength, which is his combination punching once he cuts the distance and gets in the pocket. Fighting in the pocket happens to be what we think is Caleb Plant’s greatest weakness as well. In every single one of Benavidez’s fights, he eventually gets on the inside and breaks his opponents with brutal combination punching. Nobody has yet kept him at distance the whole fight and it’s unlikely Plant will either. Benavidez is a monster on the inside because of his ability to quickly recognize and create openings in his opponent’s defense. He will show punches up the middle to manipulate his opponent to shell up in a high guard, then loop hooks around the openings. He will also beautifully mix body and head attacks to not allow his opponent to block correctly.
Benavidez vs Dirrell: Watch
As good as Caleb Plant is at controlling distance, we don’t believe he will control Benavidez for the entire fight. Nobody has done that. Once Benavidez does get on the inside, it will spell a world of trouble for Plant. Plant fights out of the Philly Shell defense which isn’t designed to be the most effective at close distances. It has many openings over the lead shoulder, around the lead elbow, and right up the middle. Philly Shell users must keep themselves at a distance where they have enough time to see and pick off the punches. Unfortunately for Plant, he often stays in front of his opponent in these situations and ends up eating punches. Canelo’s pressure eventually fatigued Plant by the late rounds and he found himself standing in front of Canelo, eating some big punches.
Canelo vs Plant KO: Watch
Final Prediction
As stated in the beginning, we believe this is as even of a match as you can make and we’re very excited to see how it plays out. This is a 50/50 matchup that we would really avoid making big bets on. We see Caleb Plant doing a good job of controlling David Benavidez in the early rounds with the jab, scoring points, and winning rounds. Eventually, Benavidez’s pressure will get to Plant by the mid to late rounds and he’ll do damage on the inside. The result of the fight could come down to how early in the fight Benavidez starts to get on the inside, and if Plant fatigues. We can easily see this fight ending up a draw with Plant winning the first half and Benavidez winning the second half. It’s also possible Plant can hold on and win the majority of the rounds with his boxing to win a decision. However, the possibility of Benavidez getting on the inside and doing damage to Plant seems likely and would sway the fight heavily in his favor. We are more likely to see Plant hit the canvas at some point which would sway the cards further in Benavidez’s favor if he doesn’t get the knockout. Due to the high likelihood of this happening, our final prediction is David Benavidez to win a decision. Likely a razor-close decision as well. So if you are a betting person, I would stay away from it.
Image Credit: DAZN